Lunar Definition of the the Fourth Quarter
|
|
|
|
Return to Murrey Math Page
Introduction
T H Murrey provides our first hint in a note he wrote on August 19, 1997. I will quote the first sentence of that message.
My starting day each fall was originally started on the 14th day after the fall equinox ...
The Fall Equinox occurred at 11:57 pm GMT on September 22, 1997. Fourteen
days after the Fall Equinox would occur
late on October 6, 1997. However, T H Murrey started the Fourth Quarter of 1997 on Friday, October 3rd. He did not follow
his own rule.
It has been suggested that we take the Full Moon closest to the first week in October, then subtract 4, 8, or 16 days. Whatever
date falls in the first week of October, use that. So, for 2003, take Full Moon (Oct 10 03:27 ET), subtract 4 trading days which
yields Oct 6 03:27 ET. Murrey claims it is Oct 6, 2003.
Another description of the same idea is that it is based on 4 trading day periods from the harvest moon with appropriate rounding
such that the start date is always rounded back to the previous trading day whenever it lands before mid-session of the trading day
(12:45 ET).
We need to determine what T H Murrey is actually doing. We will use the Full Moons
in September and October in our analysis.
We will use the actual dates provided by T H Murrey to test these ideas.
Top of Page
Start of the Fourth Quarter
| Sept Full Moon | Oct Full Moon | Fourth Quarter | Calculation | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/29-30/1993 | FRI 10/01/1993 | MON 10/04/1993 | First trading day AFTER Sept-Oct Full Moon First full week in October |
Verified |
| 09/18-20/1994 | WED 10/18-20/1994 | FRI 10/07/1994 | October Full Moon - 8 trading days First full week in October |
Verified |
| 09/08-10/1995 | SUN 10/07-09/1995 | FRI 10/06/1995 | October Full Moon - 1 trading day First full week in October |
Verified |
| 09/26-27/1996 | SAT 10/25-27/1996 | FRI 10/04/1996 | October Full Moon - 16 trading days | Verified |
| 09/16-17/1997 | WED 10/15-16/1997 | MON 10/06/1997 | October Full Moon - 8 trading days | Verified |
| 09/05-06/1998 | MON 10/05-06/1998 | FRI 10/02/1998 | October Full Moon - 1 trading day | Verified |
| 09/24-26/1999 | SUN 10/24-25/1999 | FRI 10/08/1999 | October Full Moon - 11 trading days First full week in October Some people use 10/05/1999 |
|
| 09/12-14/2000 | FRI 10/12-14/2000 | MON 10/09/2000 | October Full Moon - 4 trading days | Verified |
| 09/01-04/2001 | TUE 10/01-03/2001 | FRI 10/05/2001 | October Full Moon + 4 trading days First full week in October |
|
| 09/20-22/2002 | MON 10/20-22/2002 | FRI 10/04/2002 | October Full Moon - 11 trading days First full week in October |
|
| 09/09-11/2003 | FRI 10/09-11/2003 | MON 10/06/2003 | October Full Moon - 4 trading days First full week in October |
|
| 09/27-29/2004 | THU 10/27-29/2004 | WED 10/06/2004 | October Full Moon - 16 trading days First full week in October Some people use 10/08/2004 |
|
| 09/17-18/2005 | MON 10/16-18/2005 | MON 10/10/2005 | October Full Moon - 5 trading days Probably should have been WED 10/05/2005 |
|
| 09/07-08/2006 | FRI 10/06-07/2006 | MON 10/09/2006 | First trading day AFTER October Full Moon | |
| 09/26-27/2007 | THU 10/25-26/2007 | TUE 10/09/2007 | September Full Moon + 8 trading days October Full Moon - 12 trading days |
Verified |
| 09/14-16/2008 | TUE 10/13-15/2008 | ? | FRI 10/03/2008 or WED 10/08/2008 | |
| 09/03-05/2009 | SUN 10/03-05/2009 | FRI 10/02/2009 | Trading day BEFORE October Full Moon | Verified |
| 09/22-24/2010 | SAT 10/21-24/2010 | MON 10/04/2010 |
September Full Moon + 8 trading days First full week in October |
Verified |
| 09/11-13/2011 | WED 10/10-13/2011 | WED 10/05/2011 | October Full Moon - 3 trading days First full week in October |
Verified |
| 09/29-30/2012 | MON 10/28-30/2012 | THU 10/04/2012 | September Full Moon + 4 trading days First full week in October |
|
| 09/18-20/2013 | FRI 10/18-19/2013 | TUE 10/08/2013 | October Full Moon - 8 trading days First full week in October |
|
| 09/08-09/2014 | WED 10/07-09/2014 | ? | ? | |
| 09/27-28/2015 | TUE 10/26-28/2015 | ? | ? | |
| 09/15-17/2016 | SUN 10/15-16/2016 | WED 10/05/2016 | October Full Moon - 8 trading days First full week in October |
|
| 09/05-07/2017 | THU 10/05-06/2017 | FRI 10/06/2017 | First trading day AFTER October Full Moon First full week in October |
|
| 09/24-26/2018 | WED 10/23-25/2018 | FRI 10/05/2018 | September Full Moon + 8 trading days First full week in October |
Top of Page
Return to Murrey Math Page
Bonnie's Links
bonniehill@verizon.net
last modified on April 6, 2018
URL: http://mysite.verizon.net/bonniehill/pages.aux/murrey/lunar4thquarter.html