Chapter 1: PREDICTABLE PERIODIC EVENTS-PART II

 

F. 1 Decade to 1 Century

Tritos Eclipse Cycle 11 Years - 31 days

Interval (11.5 eclipse-years) after which another eclipse will occur (although not the same type). This cycle is less accurate than the SAROS Cycle or Inex.

Jupiter-Graffias Conjunctions 11 Years 3 months + 10 to 13 days

Interval between successive conjunctions; excluding triple conjunction intervals of Jupiter with Graffias (Beta Scorpio, 2.6 magnitude). Period between pairs of close triple conjunctions is 70 years 5 months + 4 to 18 days. During these gaps, a series of five single conjunctions with Graffias occur at a 12 Year - 15 days interval, with these series usually starting in late December. Duration of each triple conjunction is 7 months + 19 to 29 days. An additional set of triple conjunctions (with close pairs) occurred in 1900 and will reappear in 2244. Next pair of triple conjunctions:9 Feb 2054 - 6 Oct 2054 and 16 Jan 2066 - 13 Sep 2066 .

Jupiter's Sidereal year 11.862 Years

The 5th planet from the sun revolves: 0.008 times that of Mercury, 0.052 that of Venus, 0.158 that of Mars, 2.48 times faster than Saturn, 7.08 times Uranus, and 13.89 times Neptune.

Jupiter-Neptune Conjunctions 12 Years 4 Months to 13 Years

Interval between successive conjunctions; excluding triple conjunction intervals. Triple conjunctions last 7 months + 0 to 24 days and occurred in 1613, 1625-6, 1702-3, 1740-1, 1792, 1843, 1919-20, 1971. Future events include: 2009 (30' average separation), 2047-8 (42'), 2085-6 (38'), 2150 (60'), 2264-5 (13'), 2316 (52'), 2354-5 (8'), 2392 (58'), and 2443-4 (16'). For the interval between events from the year 2000 AD . For the first 30 events from 2000 AD.

Saturn's Rings on Edge 12 Years 10 months to 15 Years 6.5 months

Interval (14 Years 9 months) when Saturn's rings are edge-wise (invisible from Earth). The sun spends 15 years 9 months above Saturn's northern hemisphere and 13 years 8 months above its southern hemisphere. This imbalance is due to Saturn's orbital eccentricity. Last passage of Earth through the plane of Saturn's rings occurred on 21 May 1995. Just over fifty percent of these events occur as oscillating triple passages (north-south-north or south-north-south) through the Earth-Sun plane and last for a period of 8 months + 15 to 27 days. The next triple crossing occurs in 2038-9.

Mercury's Elongation 13 Years + 2 to 3 days

Interval when Mercury returns to approximately 6' of the same elongation from the Sun. This situation partially explains why transits with the Sun sometimes occur during this time span.

Jupiter-Uranus Conjunctions 13 Year 2.5 months to 14 Years 3 months

Interval between successive conjunctions; excluding triple conjunction intervals. Triple conjunctions last 6 months 12 days to 7 months 9 days and occurred in 1526-7, 1665, 1748, 1927-8, 1954-5, 1968-9, 1983. Future triple events include: 2010-1 (35' average separation), 2037-8 (9'), 2066 (38'), 2093 (34'), 2272-3 (47'), 2355-6 (45'), and 2494 (26'). For the interval between events from the year 2000 AD. For the first 30 events from 2000 AD.

Antares Occultation-season 13 Years 5.5 to 6.5 month

Season's duration is 5 Years + 2 to 30 days. Next season begins 7 Jan 2005 - 7 Feb 2010 then begins again 25 Aug 2023 - 27 Aug 2028 followed by 13 Mar 2042 - 17 Mar 2047.

Pleiades Occultation-season 13 Years 11 months

Season's duration is approximately 5 Years 10 months. Last season ended 20 Mar 1991. Next season begins 16 Feb 2005.

Aldebaran Occultation-season 14 Years 11.5 months to 15 Years 4 months

Season's duration is 3 Years 3 to 10 months. Last season began 8 Aug 1996 - 14 Feb 2000 then begins again 29 Jan 2015 - 3 Sep 2018.

Mars' Perihelion Oppositions 15 to 17 Years

Interval between Mars' closest approach to Earth. In 2003, Mars will be the closest to Earth so far during the Christian era, and won't be closer until 2287.

Moon's Phases 17 Years-0 to 2 days

Interval after which the moon's following phase is repeated.

SAROS Cycle Eclipse Cycle 18 Year + 10.32 or 11.32 days

SAROS Cycle of Eclipses is perhaps the most familiar periodic cycle in astronomy. The Sun and Moon will be eclipses (partially or totally) during this time period. Simply stated, the SAROS Cycle is the result of a nearly perfect common integral number of synodic, nodical and anomalistic months. This period equals exactly 19 eclipse-years. There are currently 80 different numbered SAROS Cycle series in progress. This number will range from 78 to 85 over the long term. The most common number of eclipses in a series is 71. But the number in solar series ranges from 69 to 82, averaging 72.1; in lunar series it ranges from 70 to 84, averaging 73.8. During the period 1900-2078, 402 solar eclipse and 409 lunar eclipses occurs (several penumbral events approach near zero percent but are included as a statistical occurrence.

Moon's Nutation Cycle 18.61 Years

Time it takes the moon's nodes to complete one revolution (retrograde) along the ecliptic plane (opposite to the movement of the perigee).

Jupiter-Saturn Conjunctions 18 Years 10 months to 20 Years 7.5 months

Interval between successive conjunctions; excluding triple conjunction intervals. Triple conjunctions last 6 months + 7 to 25 days and occurred in 1682-3, 1940-1, and 1980-1. Future events include: 2238-9 (44' average separation), and 2279 (73'). Next single conjunction occurs on 28 May, 2000 (69'). For the interval between events from the year 2000 AD. For the first 30 events from 2000 AD.

Moon's Metonic Cycle 19 Years + 0 to 2 days

Metonic Cycle (235 Synodic months): Moon repeats its phase on nearly the same day of the year but is generally two hours longer than 19 calendar years (leap-years account for the additional day(s)). This accounts for a total lunar eclipse that is followed and proceed by a partial eclipses +/- 19 years within a few hours of that referenced eclipse (20 eclipse-years). For example: Total eclipse (1.38 magnitude) on 18 Nov 2040 at 19:05 U.T. will be partial (0.19 magnitude) on 19 Nov 2059 at 13:00 U.T. and partial (0.95) on 19 Nov 2021 at 00:00 U.T.. If a total eclipse is followed or preceded by another, then the eclipses bracketing these two events will be either one or two penumbral or one penumbral and or one partial eclipse.

Moon's Phases 21 Years +/- 1 day

Interval when the moon's preceding phase is repeated.

Mercury's Synodic Multiple 27 Years

Mercury returns to approximately 0.1 degrees declination and +1 minute R.A. position in the sky (exactly 85 synodic cycles equals exactly 27 years).

Saturn-Regulus Conjunctions 29 years 1 month + 11 to 30 days

Interval between successive conjunctions; excluding triple conjunction intervals. For the brightest and nearest Saturn-star conjunctions.

Inex Eclipse Cycle 29 Years - 20.1 days

A period after which another (although not the same type) eclipse of the Sun or Moon will occur (known as an Inex). Succeeding eclipses shift 0.0411 degrees east because the different between 358 synodic and 30.5 eclipse-years is 0.04 days. Each Inex series last for more than 23,000 years.

Saturn's Sidereal year 29.457 Years

The 6th planet from the sun revolves: 0.0028 times that of Mercury, 0.0208 that of Venus, 0.0223 that of Mars, 0.4032 that of Jupiter, 2.85 faster than Uranus, and 5.59 times Neptune.

Moon's Librations Approximately 30 Years

As a result of the moon's axis inclined of 6 degs 5 min, elliptical orbit, and Earth's and moon's rotations, 59% of the moon's surface is eventually visible during this time period.

Venus-Mars 32 Year Cycle 32 Years + 0.5 to 4.5 days

Series interval between Venus-Mars repeated conjunctions. In 32 years, 15 to 17 different conjunctions occur with nearly each one repeating in turn. Some series last >1200 years (up to 40 events). Others are considerably shorter. At the beginning and end of these series, the interval can be one week longer than 32 years. The reason why this happens is because for nearly every 20 times Venus returns to its similar position in the sky, Mars completes almost 15 returns. If these cycles were exactly whole numbers, the repeated conjunctions would last much longer.

Mercury's Elongation 33 Years - 2 to 3 days

Interval when Mercury returns to approximately 4' of the same elongation from the Sun.

Saturn-Neptune Conjunctions 35 Years 3 months to 36 Years 4 months

Interval between successive conjunctions; excluding triple conjunction intervals. Triple conjunctions last 8 months +2 to 10 days and occurred in 1523-4, 1629-30, 1846, 1952-3, 1989. Future triple events include: 2132 (27' average separation), 2348-9 (46'), and 2454-5 (37'). Next single conjunction will occur on 20 Feb 2026 (50'). For the interval between events from the year 2000 AD. For the first 30 events from 2000 AD.

Saturn-Uranus Conjunctions 42 Years 10 months to 46 Years 10 months

Interval between successive conjunctions; excluding triple conjunction intervals. Triple conjunctions last 7 months + 18 to 39 days and occurred in 1580, 1623-4, 1761-2, 1897, 1988. Future triple events include: 2079 (16' average separation), 2122-3 (22'), and 2260-1 (81'). Next single conjunction will occur on 28 Jun 2032 (71'). Close conjunctions (<=10') occurred in 4592 BC, 4045, 4003, 2957, 2367, 1235, 646 BC, 991 A.D., 1034, 1580, and 1623. Next close pairings occur in 2079, 2669, 2712, and 4391. For the interval between events from the year 2000 AD. For the first 30 events from 2000 AD.

Mercury's Elongation 46 Years + a fraction of day)

Mercury returns to approximately 1' of the same elongation from the Sun.

Mercury-Mars-Jupiter Conjunctions 47 Years - 17 days

In approximately 47 years, Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter complete 148, 22, and 43 synodic cycles; respectively. Generally, a parallel series of near trio conjunctions are occurring +/- 2 years and 10 weeks.

Mars' Synodic Multiple 47 Years + 3 days

Mars returns to approximately 0.1 degrees declination and +1 minute R.A. position in the sky (exactly 22 synodic cycles equals 47.008 years).

Exeligmos Eclipse Cycle 54 Years + 34 days

An eclipse repetition cycle equal to three SAROS Cycle cycles (known as an Exeligmos). A solar eclipse returns to almost the same longitude, but occurs about 600 miles north or south of its predecessor.

Eclipse Cycle 58 Years - 40.1 to - 42.1 days

Interval of 61 eclipse years. A total eclipse of the sun is followed by an annular eclipse occurring 36 degrees further east.

Saturn's Synodic Multiple 59 Years

Saturn returns to approximately 0.3 degrees declination and +9 minute R.A. position in the sky (exactly 57 synodic cycles equals exactly 59 years).

Lunar-Solar Eclipse Cycle 65 Years + 0 to 3 days

The moon is displaced 0.9 degrees with respect to its node (12% of the metonic cycle displacement). As a result, similar types of eclipses will return many more times for this eclipse cycle.

Mars' Perihelion Oppositions 79 Years + 3 days

More accurate interval for predicting the best oppositions of Mars.i.Mars:Closest to Earth;. At each return, Mars is within 0.9 degrees declination and 11' R.A. of its previous appearance.

 

Jupiter's Synodic Multiple 83 Years

Jupiter returns to approximately 0.1 degrees declination and +1 minute R.A. position in the sky (exactly 76 synodic cycles equals exactly 83 years).

Uranus-Regulus Conjunctions 83 Year 2 months + 12 to 18 days

Interval between triple conjunctions of Uranus with the stars Regulus (1.3 magnitude. Duration of triple conjunctions is 9 months + 14 to 19 days. The next events with Regulus occurs 16 Oct 2045 - 31 Jul 2046. For the brightest and nearest Uranus-star conjunctions.

Uranus' Sidereal year 84.02 Years

The 7th planet from the sun revolves nearly: 350 times slower than Mercury, 137 times slower than Venus, 45 times slower than Mars, 7 times slower than Saturn, and 1.96 times faster than Neptune. In the years 2124 2208 and 2396 and 2480; 84 years + 2 to 3 days apart, Uranus will occult the same stars (7.1 and 4.5 magnitude), respectively.

Three Inex Eclipse Cycles 87 years - 61 days

This interval is useful for determining eclipses from the distant present.

 

G. 1 Century to 1 Millennium

Neptune-Regulus Conjunctions 163 Years 3 months 19 to 30 days and 164 Years 1 month 11 to 18 days

Interval between close (<20') triple and quintuple conjunctions of Neptune with the stars Regulus (1.3 magnitude). Duration of triple conjunctions is 10 months +/- 4 days. Quintuple conjunctions of Regulus occurred in 115-7, 609-11, 1268-70, and 1927 (interval of 492 or 657 years) with a duration of 19 months 11 to 15 days. The next event with Regulus occurs 8 Oct 2092 - 9 Aug 2093. A similar pattern exists for the star Mu Gemini (2.8 magnitude) although separation ranges from 10 to 18 arc minutes. For the brightest and nearest Neptune-star conjunctions.

Neptune's Sidereal year 164.786 Years

The 8th planet from the sun revolves nearly: 684 times slower than Mercury, 268 times slower than Venus, 88 times slower than Mars, 14 times slower than Saturn, and 2 times slower than Uranus.

Uranus-Neptune Conjunctions 170 Years 3.5 to 5.0 months to 171 Years to +3 months

Interval between successive conjunctions; excluding triple conjunction intervals. Triple conjunctions last 9 months +/- 5 days and occurred in 1650, 1821, 1993. Future event includes: 2336-7. The separation has been decreasing with each conjunction since 1479 (91' mean separation) to 2336-7 (28'). Next conjunction will begin on 17 Jan 2165 (47'). Close triple conjunctions (<=10') occurred in 3835-4 BC and 1607 BC (281-2 and 452-3 A.D. just missing this criteria). Next close triples occur in 2508-9, 4567-8, 6794-5, and 8682-3.

Mercury's Transits 217 Years)

Mercury's transit cycles repeat.

Mars' Oppositions 284 Years + 2.5 days

Mars returns to within 0.75 degrees declination and 15' R.A at opposition. Distance from Earth is within 0.003 AU at each successive event.

Solar Totality 410 Years

Although this astronomical phenomena should be considered as a non-periodical event (in Chapter 2), the secular (very long term) worldwide average would be very close to the 410 years as seen--> Total Solar Eclipses (1-1000AD) or Worldwide. However, if a specific locale for witnessing solar totality is examined, the following occurs. During this current epoch when the Northern Hemisphere is further from the Sun (near the Summer Solstice), the average frequency for totality is closer to one in 320 years (at 45 north latitude) while the Southern Hemisphere, at latitude 45 south, is nearly 640 years. On average, the polar regions will see more totality although of shorter duration and lower in the sky. Sometimes a site can have two consecutive solar eclipses with totality (Halifax, Nova Scotia - 7 March 1970 10 July 1972). During the period 1878-1979, the U.S. had 13 total eclipses; between 1842-1905, Spain had five; between 1901-1934, the East Indies had four; and between 594-1999, Great Britain had 22 events (five in Edinburgh). During the period 1-4000 A.D., the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado has a totality frequency of approximately 178 years; most in the Continental US. The region with the fewest totality events is near Jacksonville, FL where the frequency average about one event every 400 years. For accessible land areas (worldwide), there is a rough average of one minute of totality per year (one in three total eclipses are favorably placed in tropical and mid-latitudes). On the opposite end, the longest duration without even experiencing a partial solar eclipse is 18.5 years (e.g. 15N 90W (453-472 A.D.).

18 Inex Eclipse Cycles 521 Years +/- 1 or 2 days

Interval used for long term eclipse predictions.

Lunar Eclipse Regulus Occultations 800 Years

Interval between the start of the eclipsed moon occultation of Regulus. During this period, the full moon is displaced, relative to the stars, only 0.09 degrees (about 5 degrees with respect to its node). Each eclipse-occultation series lasts approximately 233 years (panorama shows a 19 and 65 year interval separation). The start of the next series will occur in 2510. The last one ended in 1943.

H. > 1 Millennium

Earth's Platonic year 23,000 to 26,000 Years

A Platonic Year. Period required by Earth to complete a precession of the equinoxes. Polaris will approach the true celestial north pole in 2102 (27' 31" distance), Vega in about 13,000 years.



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