Chapter 2: PREDICTABLE NON-PERIODIC EVENTS-PART II
Planet-on-Planet Occultations (Worldwide)
INTERVAL between most recent occurrences, (INTERVAL AVERAGES)
for events during the next 1000 years are included if more than two
events occur, and specific planet AVERAGES for 4000 years are
shown in Table 0.1. In all cases, the next millennium will witness an
increase in activity for all planet pairs except for Mercury-Venus,
Mercury-Uranus, and Jupiter-Neptune.
Table 0.1: Planet-Planet Occultations (last-next events)
MERCURY-PLANET: 104 Years
Current interval: 396 Years Next interval: 996 Years
Mercury-Venus: Last: 28 May 1737 Next: 3 Dec 2133, 3129, 3285, 3868, 3965
1501 Years Next interval average: (246 Years)
Mercury-Mars: Last: 12 May 578 Next: 11 Aug 2079, 29 Jul 2126,
11 Apr 2818, 3285
380 Years (175 Years)
Mercury-Jupiter: Last: 4 Oct 1708 Next: 27 Oct 2088, 7 Apr 2094, 25 Mar 2816,
20 Jul 2833, 5 Oct 2965; none in 4th millennium
1146 Years 950 Years
Mercury-Saturn: Last: 9 Dec 1808 Next: 21 Nov 2954, 3904
558 Years >1649 Years
Mercury-Uranus: Last: 21 Jul 1793 Next: 7 Apr 2351; none (3001-4000)
2932 Years >1933 Years
Mercury-Neptune: Last: 29 Aug 865 BC Next: 15 Jul 2067; none in 4th millennium
VENUS-PLANET: 66 Years
737 Years 503 Years
Venus-Mars: Last 13 Oct 1590 Next: 4 Jun 2327, 15 Dec 2830; 3985
247 Years (154 Years)
Venus-Jupiter: Last 3 Jan 1818 Next: 22 Nov 2065, 14 Sep 2123, 8 Oct 2335, 12 Feb 2912, 8 Nov 2954, 13 Aug 2986
472 Years (191 Years)
Venus-Saturn: Last: 29 Aug 1771 Next: 12 Aug 2243, 25 Jan 2518, 6 Mar 2817, 3156, 3340
2289 Years (56 Years)
Venus-Uranus: Last: 11 Nov 38 BC Next: 4 Mar 2251, 11 Sep 2307, 30 Dec 2419, 3231
1222 Years (127 Years)
Venus-Neptune: Last: 30 Aug 1427 Next: 21 Aug 2104, 16 Feb 2649, 3 Dec 2781, 22 Mar 2991, 3243
MARS-PLANET: 142 Years
836 Years (245 Years)
Mars-Jupiter: Last: 22 Sep 1387 Next: 2 Dec 2223, 29 Aug 2478, 9 Mar 2959, 3332, 3493
1810 Years >668 Years
Mars-Saturn: Last: 28 Jan 1522 Next: 9 Jul 3332
3520 Years 1089 Years
Mars-Uranus: Last: 16 Mar 697 BC Next: 6 Feb 2825, 30 Jan 3914
1237 Years >1485 Years
Mars-Neptune: Last: 25 Aug 1278 Next: 7 Apr 2515; none in 4th millennium
JUPITER-PLANET: 84 Years
>14,000 Years
Jupiter-Saturn: Very close conjunctions < 60": 8 Mar 4523 and 1 Jul 6687.
For occultations +/- 80,000 year, see Occultations
5084 Years
Jupiter-Uranus: Last: 15 Aug 1623 Next: 7 Apr 6707
1726 Years
Jupiter-Neptune: Last: 19 Sep 1702 Next: 29 Feb 3428
SATURN-PLANET: 178 Years
>14,000 Years
Saturn-Uranus: Very close conjunctions <85": 2 Feb 2367 BC and 20 Aug 646 BC
10,367 Years
Saturn-Neptune: Last: 11 Nov 4110 BC Next: 1 Jul 6257
URANUS-PLANET: 275 Years
NEPTUNE-PLANET: 193 Years
>14,000 Years
Uranus-Neptune: Very close conjunctions < 45": 2 Nov 4567 and 12 May 4568
Planets involved in mutual occultations during 4000 years reveal a
tendency to occur in clusters. Note that the faster inferior planets
(Mercury and Venus) have more occultations. Jupiter's large appear size
contributes to its share of events. No events occurred in the 20th
Century although an average of 2.6, 3.2, 3.5 and 2.1 mutual
occultations per century occurs during the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th
millennium, respectively. While up to seven worldwide events can occur
in 100 years, unfortunately we are living through a long 247 year gap
in activity (ends in 2065).
PLANET-TO-PLANET CONJUNCTIONS
The frequency of planet-to planet conjunctions is a function of the
degree of separation (in R.A.), the time period under consideration,
and the number of planets involved. Conjunctions can be quite
unspectacular since planets can be more than 10 degrees apart while
quasi-conjunctions (minimum separation not in R.A.) can be less than
0.5 degree for many days. This section explores the relationship
between planet pairing and separation verses periodicity.
Table 0.4: Planet-Planet Conjunctions (frequency of favorable
observations during 21st century)
PERCENT OF FAVORABLE VISIBILITY
PLANET---------> MERCURY VENUS MARS JUPITER SATURN URANUS NEPTUNE
---------
E MERCURY ------- 13% 6% 13% 5% 3% 3%
V VENUS 237 ------- 29% 17% 29% 25% 18%
E MARS 153 79 ------- 33% 28% 27% 22%
N JUPITER 125 98 45 ------- (20%) 43% 21%
T SATURN 124 104 50 5 --------- (25%) (0%)
S URANUS 124 103 55 16 4 -------- (0%)
NEPTUNE 120 106 53 14 3 0 --------
Generally, Mercury's event frequency decrease as one examines the
planets outward to Neptune. The reverse occurs for the other planets
(event frequency increases outward). Favorable visibility implies the
sun >=15 degrees and below the horizon for Uranus and Neptune, and
>=10 degrees for the other planets. (%) denotes small sample of
events.
Inferior Planet-to-Superior Planet Conjunctions (Long Term)
Inferior Planet-Superior Planet Conjunctions are usually characterized
by three distinct periods. The first, the shortest interval between
conjunctions; generally lasts one week to three months and represents
multiple conjunctions (parts of triple events and infrequently double
sets). The second interval period, usually around 300 days for Venus,
one year for Mercury, and 700-800 days for Mars-planet pairing (except
between 194-228 days for Mercury-Venus) is associated with single
conjunction. The third and longest interval period is associated with
singular events which result when a multiple sets is skipped (e.g.,
short interval + middle interval).
Mercury-Planet Conjunction Intervals (1900-2078 A.D.)
Mercury, the fastest revolving planet will overtake
all the other planets several times each year.
Mercury-Venus Conjunction Intervals (1900-2078 A.D.)
Because of Mercury's greater inclination to the ecliptic plane, close
conjunctions are the exception. The number of events shown can be used
to consider cumulative percentage of a given separation range. If one
evaluate 100 consecutive events during any period, very similar curves
will result. Separations greater than 10 degrees can occur between
Mercury and Venus. Separation is in arc minutes. For the first 100 events from the year 2000 AD.
For 500 events, planet pair and solar separation are shown here and for percent
of minimum separation. .
This pair is visible only seven percent of the time (>14 degrees
solar elongation) based on conjunctions (1900-2078). Intervals occur
at: 8-82 days (48%), 194- 228 days (23%), and 245-294 days (24%). The
shortest period constitutes multiple conjunctions, while the longer
periods are single conjunction events. The longest interval occurs when
a multiple conjunction set is skipped. The series of return
conjunctions greater than 82 days alternate between 2 and 4 events with
two events occurring 88% of the time. The two inferior planets are in
conjunction nearly twice of any other planet pairing except for
Mercury-Mars
Mercury-Mars Conjunction Intervals (1900-2078 A.D.)
This pair is visible only three percent of the time based on
conjunctions (1900-2078). Intervals occur at: 11-82 days (69%), 628-642
days (13%), and 713-718 days (17%). The shortest period constitutes
multiple conjunctions, while the longer periods are single conjunction
events. The longest interval occurs when a multiple conjunction set is
skipped. For the first 100 events from
the year 2000 AD.
Mercury-Jupiter Conjunction Intervals (1900-2078 A.D.)
This pair is visible only three percent of the time based on
conjunctions (1900-2078). Intervals occur at: 10-56 days (28%), 369-382
days (53%), and 431-435 days (15%). The shortest period constitutes
multiple conjunctions, while the longer periods are single conjunction
events. The longest interval occurs when a multiple conjunction set is
skipped. The series of conjunctions greater than 56 days alternate
between 2, 5, 7, and 9 plus yearly events with no apparent pattern. For
the first 100 events from the year 2000
AD.
Mercury-Saturn Conjunction Intervals (1900-2078 A.D.)
This pair is visible only two percent of the time based on conjunctions
(1900-2078). Intervals occur at: 12-52 days (24%), 362-379 days (67%),
and 416-422 days (7%). The shortest period constitutes multiple
conjunctions, while the period around one year are single conjunction
events. The longest interval occurs when a multiple conjunction set is
skipped. Generally the shortest periods occurs after four consecutive
yearly events (69% of the time). However, multiple conjunctions can be
delayed for 7, 11, and 15 years; totaling 21% of the time. For the first 100 events from the year 2000 AD.
Mercury-Uranus Conjunction Intervals (1900-2078 A.D.)
This pair is visible only five percent of the time for conjunctions
(1900-2078). Intervals occur at: 6-47 days (21%), 358-380 days (76%),
and 409-411 days (3%). %). The shortest period constitutes multiple
conjunctions, while the period around one year are single conjunction
events. The longest interval occurs when a multiple conjunction set is
skipped. Conjunction series with intervals greater than 47 days can
last for 5, 6, 11, and 16 events before a multiple set returns. For the
first 100 events from the year 2000 AD.
Mercury-Neptune Conjunction Intervals (1900-2078 A.D.)
This pair is visible only four percent of the time. Conjunctions are
based on the period 1900-2078 with intervals occurring at: 8-48 days
(19%), 357-371 days (76%), and 409-412 days (4%); very similar to
Uranus). The shortest period constitutes multiple conjunctions, while
the period around one year are single conjunction events. The longest
interval occurs when a multiple conjunction set is skipped. The series
of return conjunctions greater than 48 days generally alternate between
6, 11 and 17 events with no apparent pattern before a multiple set
reappears. Between 2043-2077, there are no multiple conjunctions. For
the first 100 events from the year 2000
AD.
Venus-Planet Conjunction Intervals (1900-2078 A.D.)
Venus' interval pairing with the Jovian
planets are nearly identical. However, Mars' 780 day synodic period
causes several different interval pairing with Venus to occur. A delay
of 940 days between conjunctions occurs in the 179 year period. About
20-30% of Venus' conjunctions with the superior planets will be greater
than two degrees.
Venus-Mars Conjunctions
This pair is visible 27 percent of the time. Conjunctions based on the
period 1900-2078, occur: 29-121 days (19%), 162-249 days (22%), 416-458
days (8%), and 684-711 days (51%). The shortest period constitutes
multiple conjunctions, while the period greater than 162 days are
single conjunction events. The longest interval occurs when a multiple
conjunction set is skipped; thus multiple conjunctions are the
exception. One interval between conjunctions lasts 940 days (10 May
2002-5 Dec 2004). The series greater than 121 days generally alternates
between 1, 4, 5, 8, and 9 events with no recognizable pattern. Four
events constitutes 72% of longer interval sets. For the interval between events for the years
2000-2078 AD.
Venus-Jupiter Conjunctions
Conjunction pair is visible 23 percent of the time based on the period
1900-2078. Conjunction intervals are: multiple sets: 34-116 days (9%),
300-320 days (34%), and skipped multiple sets: 433-449 days (57%).
Generally, the shorter interval period event is followed by two longer
interval period events. The shortest period interval involve multiple
conjunction sets; with a duration lasting 4 months. For the first 100 events from the year 2000 AD. For
500 events, planet pair and solar separation are shown here and forpercent
of minimum separation. For the interval
between events for the years 2000-2078 AD.
Venus-Saturn Conjunctions
Conjunction pair is visible 17 percent of the time based on the period
1900-2078. Conjunction intervals are: multiple sets: 27-104 days (6%),
294-319 days (37%), and skipped multiple sets: 411-427 days (55%). The
shortest period interval involve multiple conjunction sequence; with a
duration lasting 3.5 months. Generally, the shorter interval period
event is followed by two longer interval period events. For the first 100 events from the year 2000 AD. For
500 events, planet pair and solar separation are shown here and for percent
of minimum separation. For the interval
between events for the years 2000-2078 AD.
Venus-Uranus Conjunctions
Conjunction pair is visible 27 percent of the time based on the period
1900-2078. Conjunction intervals are: multiple sets: 30-93 days (5%),
291-310 days (38%), and skipped multiple sets: 404-417 days (57%). For
the first 100 events from the year 2000
AD. For 500 events, planet pair and solar separation are shown here and for percent
of minimum separation. For the interval
between events for the years 2000-2078 AD.
Venus-Neptune Conjunctions
Conjunction pair is visible 22 percent of the time based on the period
1900-2078. Conjunction intervals are: multiple sets: 29-85 days (2%),
291-315 days (43%), and skipped multiple sets: 402-414 days (55%). For
the first 100 events from the year 2000
AD. For 500 events, planet pair and solar separation are shown here and for the percent
of minimum separation. For the interval
between events for the years 2000-2078 AD.
Mars-Planet Conjunction Intervals (1900-2078 A.D.)
Multiple conjunctions account for less than 10 percent of Mars'
conjunction with the Jovian planets. As a result, skipped multiple
conjunctions (single conjunction events)
occur as the rule. About half of Mars-planet conjunctions occur with
separations less than 1.5 degrees.
Mars-Jupiter Conjunctions
Conjunction pair is visible 26 percent of the time based on the period
1900-2078. Conjunction interval is: 794-832 days (91%). Five other
interval periods between 68-74 days and 976-981 days occur. The
shortest period interval involves multiple conjunction sets and the
longest skipped sets. Generally, after every 21st event, the series is
broken by the longer interval period (2026-2029 and 2073-2076). For the
first 100 events from the year 2000 AD.
For 500 events, planet pair and solar separation are shown here and for the percent
of minimum separation. For the interval
between events for the years 2000-2078 AD.
Mars-Saturn Conjunctions
Conjunction pair is visible 36 percent of the time based on the period
1900-2078. Conjunction interval is: 722-755 days (91%). Seven other
interval periods between 60-86 days and 586-601 days occur. The
shortest period interval involve multiple conjunction sets and the
longest skipped sets. Generally, after every 16th event, the series is
broken with the shorter interval period (2016-2018, 2046-2048,
2078-2080). For the first 100 events
from the year 2000 AD. For 500 events, planet pair and solar separation
are shown here and for percent of minimum separation. For the interval between events for the years
2000-2078 AD.
Mars-Uranus Conjunctions
Conjunction pair is visible 39 percent of the time based on the period
1900-2078. Conjunction intervals are: 549-578 days (18%) and 693-725
days (80%). A scant 2% of the interval periods are between 20-159 days
and involve multiple conjunction sets. Generally, after every 9th
event, the series is broken by the shorter interval period. For the first 100 events from the year 2000 AD. For
500 events, planet pair and solar separation are shown here and for percent
of minimum separation. For the interval
between events for the years 2000-2078 AD.
Mars-Neptune Conjunctions
Conjunction pair is visible 37 percent of the time based on the period
1900-2078. Conjunction intervals are: 537-556 days (14%) and 700-718
days (76%). The remaining 10% of the interval periods are between
33-117 days and involves multiple conjunction sets. Generally, after
every 8th event, the series is broken by the shorter interval period.
For the interval between events for the
years 2000-2078 AD.
Inferior Planet-to-Superior Planet Conjunctions <= 60' (R.A.)
(2000-2099 A.D.)
Table 0.5: Planet-Planet Conjunctions <=60' for 100 Years
WORLDWIDE (AVERAGE) YEARS PER EVENT
LOCAL (AVG.)
SEP <=60' SEP <=30' SEP <=10' Min. Sep Obis (%)
Mercury-Venus: 1.35 Years 2.70 Years 12.5 Years 23
Venus-Mars: 2.08 Years 3.13 Years 14.3 Years 44
Venus-Jupiter: 1.56 Years 2.94 Years 11.1 Years 23
Venus-Saturn: 1.96 Years 3.84 Years 11.1 Years 39
Mars-Jupiter: 3.13 Years 8.33 Years 25.0 Years 38
Mars-Saturn: 6.25 Years 11.1 Years 50.0 Years 33
Mars-Uranus: 2.50 Years 5.26 Years 14.3 Years 38
Mars-Neptune: 5.00 Years 11.1 Years 33.3 Years 30
The average frequency of planet-planet conjunctions as a function of
separation. Percentages (observable conjunctions) are based on solar
elongation of 10 to 15 degrees (dependent on planet brightness).
Inferior Planet-to-Superior Planet Conjunctions <=10' (R.A.)
(2000-2599 A.D.)
Table 0.6: Planet-Planet Conjunctions <=10' for 600 Years
WORLDWIDE (AVERAGE) YEARS PER EVENT
LOCAL (AVG.)
SEP <=10' SEP <=5' SEP <=99" Min. Sep Obs (%)
Mercury-Venus: 7.79 Years 16.2 Years 54.5 Years 14
Venus-Mars: 9.09 Years 17.1 Years 42.9 Years 20
Venus-Jupiter: 10.9 Years 22.2 Years 66.7 Years 15
Venus-Saturn: 11.5 Years 25.0 Years 66.7 Years 15
Mars-Jupiter: 20.7 Years 37.5 Years 120 Years 33
Mars-Saturn: 31.6 Years 66.6 Years 200 Years 40
Mars-Uranus: 14.3 Years 22.2 Years 120 Years 24
Mars-Neptune: 40.0 Years 54.5 Years 120 Years 40
The average frequency of planet-planet close conjunctions as a function
of separation. Percentages (observable conjunctions) are based on solar
elongation of 10 to 15 degrees (dependent on planet brightness).
Superior Planet-to-Superior Planet Conjunctions
Superior Planet Conjunctions (100 Separations)
As would be expected, slower orbiting Jovian planets have less frequent
conjunctions with other Jovian planets (e.g., Jupiter-Saturn
conjunctions within 6 arc minutes occur approximately 400 years on
average and for Saturn-Uranus and for Uranus-Neptune much less often. However,
unlike Mercury, Venus and Mars, Jovian-to-Jovian separations occur much
closer. Twenty-five percent of all conjunctions are less than a half
degree apart.
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